Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.588725 2.080380 2.736944 3.698287 5.105578e+00 7.149404e+00 10.458168
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.036945 1.533862 2.310697 3.677816 6.173591e+00 1.088147e+01 21.447990
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.794678 1.309235 2.238114 4.193259 8.693319e+00 2.016780e+01 59.715992
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.617447 1.116045 2.138633 4.686521 1.211124e+01 3.874038e+01 201.931566
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.497695 0.978821 2.091001 5.367696 1.767830e+01 8.460509e+01 1087.684205
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.404147 0.855933 2.019320 6.041128 2.571473e+01 2.023622e+02 13149.754316
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.311852 0.696720 1.770066 5.970420 3.161566e+01 4.093377e+02 516550.124477
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.239837 0.558541 1.505253 5.607589 3.604839e+01 7.831378e+02 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.198899 0.485769 1.403001 5.900080 4.892737e+01 2.432251e+03 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.175058 0.451009 1.411038 6.870276 7.992504e+01 1.811550e+04 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.158258 0.430386 1.463628 8.371019 1.479489e+02 1.069537e+06 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.138052 0.390712 1.415329 9.199310 2.364338e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.114628 0.333614 1.264261 9.034275 3.154894e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.094628 0.281214 1.102749 8.483745 3.838154e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.084022 0.258825 1.077486 9.472702 7.221490e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.074603 0.237240 1.042468 10.392309 1.401641e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.067392 0.221506 1.030635 11.802675 3.367863e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.060873 0.206060 1.009918 13.189276 9.025297e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.052868 0.181435 0.911342 12.688246 1.442188e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.045510 0.157339 0.800858 11.547919 1.785566e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.041050 0.144630 0.761881 12.051316 4.791697e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.038472 0.139486 0.774593 14.199404 4.897022e+05 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.036652 0.137210 0.809145 17.691919 3.696481e+08 NaN NaN